HSBC Bank highly assesses the prospects for economic development of Uzbekistan
On January 11, 2012 the Global Research Department of HSBC Bank published a report titled “The World in 2050”, in which Uzbekistan was placed on the 11th place among 26 fastest growing countries in the world. It is predicted that by 2050 our country can become the world’s 51st largest economy with a GDP of 314 billion USD.
The report is based on analysis of the current level of the economies of the countries and the factors determining their development potential towards 2050. These fundamentals include current income per capita income, rule of law, democracy and education levels, as well as demographic changes. It is underlying that the economies, which are currently called “developing” are going to power global growth over the next four decades.
The HSBC experts divided the Top 100 countries of the world into three categories:
1) fast-growth - with expected average annual growth of more than 5%. This category includes 26 states, including Uzbekistan, which have made great progress in improving fundamentals, opened themselves to the technology available elsewhere and should enjoy many years of “copy and paste” growth ahead;
2) growth - with expected annual growth of between 3% and 5% (43 countries);
3) stable - with annual growth of 3% (31 countries).
According to HSBC’s “model projections for total GDP”, it is expected that in the next 40 years the Central Asia countries will perform extremely well in the context of this model, on the background of stable increase of production in relation to the very well-educated population.
It is forecasted that the GDP growth in Uzbekistan in 2010-2020 will be on average 8.2%, in 2020-2030 - 6.9%, in 2030-2040 - 6.1%, in 2040-2050 - 5%, which will be the second rate in Asia (after the Philippines).
As HSBC experts noted, if the Government of Uzbekistan ensures complete progress in improving economic infrastructure, the growth of GDP per capita will show 6.7% in 2010-2020, 6.6% in 2020-2030, 6.6% in 2030-2040 and 6.6% in 2040-2050. This indicator will be the third largest in the world (after Ukraine and Serbia).